Forecast Validations

 ScriptCAST In-Market Forecast Validations

Mean Absolute Percentage Error : 2.8% across 39 real-world forecasts

 Product CategoryActualForecast% Error
1Contraceptive (Launch Year)215.2K (units)215.7K (units)0.23%
2Antimigraine (DTC)24.9% (repeat)25.1% (repeat)0.80%
3Post-Menopausal (DTC) 800#0.7% (targ. aud.)0.616% (targ. aud.)-12.00%
4Antihypertensive (Launch Year)3.05 (share)3.1 (share)1.64%
5Antihypertensive (Restage)2.9 (share)2.9 (share)0.00%
6Antifungal (Launch Year)7.7 (share)7.8 (share)1.30%
7Antihypertensive (Competitor)8.0 (share)7.9 (share)-1.25%
8Antihypertensive (Budget Cut)2.43 (share)2.5 (share)2.88%
9Cholesterol Reducer   
      (12th Month NRx Retail Share)33.3 (share)34.1 (share)2.40%
      (24th Month NRx Retail Share)43.4 (share)41.7 (share)-3.92%
      (36th Month NRx Retail Share)48.7 (share)46.9 (share)-3.70%
      (48th Month NRx Retail Share)50.7 (share)51.0 (share)0.59%
10Contraceptive (New Detailing & Sampling Plan)4,455,8324,373,399-1.85%
11NSAID (New Detailing & Sampling Plan)2,535,6232,581,2661.80%
12Osteoporotic (Launch Year)$48.3M$49.4M2.28%
13Cholesterol Reducer (Average of 12 Monthly Forecasts)1.41 (share)1.37 (share)-2.84%
14NSAID (Launch Year)20.5 (share)21.3 (share)3.90%
15Antibiotic (Increment)4.19 (share pts.)4.36 (share pts.)4.06%
16Oncologic (Volumetric Increment)3.10%
17Seasonal Allergy (Launch Year)1.72 (share)1.62 (share)-5.81%
18Asthma (DTU)20.1% (incremental)19.5% (incremental)-2.99%
19NSAID (New Category; TRx Share at 12th month)33.21 (share)33.06 (share)-0.45%
20Antihypertensive (NRx Share at 12th month)0.67 (share)0.70 (share)4.48%
21Antihypertensive (New Indication; Launch Year)$31.1M$32.2M3.54%
22Prostate (Launch Year)$24.3M$23.7M-2.47%
23Off-Label Usage for Bipolar Disorder31.30%30.80%-1.60%
24New Formulation for Anti-Anxiety (1st 18 months NRx’s)295.2K296.8K0.54%
25Oncologic6.1 (incr. share pts.)5.9 (incr.Share pts.)-3.28%
26Psychotropic (DTC)0.973M (incremental)1.028M (incremental)5.65%
27Gynecological Diagnostic Device$4.1MM$4.2MM2.44%
28Neurological (Launch Year)4.04% (projected)4.17%3.22%
29Dyslipidemic (Launch Year)2,353,187 TRx’s2,291,201 TRx’s-2.63%
30Antimigraine New Formulation   
      (Launch Year TRx Share)0.958 (Share)0.953 (Share)-0.52%
      (Year 2 TRx Share)1.214 (Share)1.252 (Share)3.13%
31Epilepsy   
      (12th Month TRx Share)1.151 (TRx Share)1.184 (TRx Share)2.87%
      (18th Month TRx Share)1.508 (TRx Share)1.501 (TRx Share)-0.46%
32New Rheumatology Biologic – including forecasting DTC   
      (12th Month)7.9 (% of Class Leader)7.8 (% of Class Leader)-1.27%
      (18th Month)10.9 (% of Class Leader)11.2 (% of Class Leader)2.75%
33Hospital Antibiotic – including forecasting Payer access   
      (12th Month)12,045 days of therapy12,462 days of therapy3.46%
34Injectable Anti-Diabetic (12th Month)43,570 (patients)44,859 (patients)3.0%
35Hyperlipidemia and Cardiovascular outcomes (New Indication Launch Year)36.4 (TRx share)37.5 (TRx share)-2.9%
36Parkinson’s Disease late-stage treatment (1-Year)$99.2M$102.1M2.9%
37Vaccine (Launch Year)245,839 (doses)261,029 (doses)6.2%
38Vaccine (Launch Year) 3,343,780 (doses)3,479,014 (doses)4.0%                
39DTC Incremental Atypical Antipsychotic (15 Months)96,824 TRx’s94,874 TRx’s-2.0%
Mean Absolute Percentage Error2.8%